Iran holds some of the world’s largest untapped reserves of lithium, copper, and rare earth elements — the very materials Europe needs for its EV battery transition. But sanctions lock EU companies out while China and Russia absorb the supply.
Iran is pouring billions into solar farms to fix its power crisis. Germany is spending hundreds of billions on offshore wind to end its dependence on Russian gas. Two parallel energy revolutions, driven by the same diagnosis, kept apart by sanctions.
When the E3 triggered the JCPOA snapback in September 2025, Europe gambled that reimposing UN sanctions would pressure Iran. Instead, it permanently surrendered a €27 billion trade relationship to China and Russia.
In 2011, the EU and Iran exchanged €27 billion in goods. By 2025, that figure had fallen to €3.72 billion. As China fills the vacuum, Europe’s decade-long economic retreat from Iran looks less like strategy and more like surrender.