Three weeks after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Brent crude has risen above $111 a barrel, surpassing its level on the day the truce was announced. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed and peace talks stalled, Europe faces another energy-driven economic shock.
When the E3 triggered the JCPOA snapback in September 2025, Europe gambled that reimposing UN sanctions would pressure Iran. Instead, it permanently surrendered a €27 billion trade relationship to China and Russia.
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed 13 million barrels of daily oil supply from world markets, pushing Europe toward its worst energy crisis since the 1970s. The country Europe sanctioned into economic irrelevance now holds the key to the continent’s energy future.
BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies made at least $2.5 billion from trading in Q1 2026 as the Iran war created the largest oil supply disruption in history. Meanwhile, Exxon and Chevron lost $7 billion in derivative losses.
In 2011, the EU and Iran exchanged €27 billion in goods. By 2025, that figure had fallen to €3.72 billion. As China fills the vacuum, Europe’s decade-long economic retreat from Iran looks less like strategy and more like surrender.
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