Three weeks after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Brent crude has risen above $111 a barrel, surpassing its level on the day the truce was announced. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed and peace talks stalled, Europe faces another energy-driven economic shock.
Paracetamol prices have doubled in some English pharmacies. Air freight costs for medicines have surged. The connection: a blocked Strait of Hormuz, disrupted petrochemical supplies, and a sanctions regime that has left Europe’s medicine supply chain dangerously exposed.
Europe has six weeks of jet fuel left. Lufthansa has cancelled 20,000 flights. KLM, SAS, and easyJet are bleeding money. The Iran war didn’t just spike oil prices — it exposed a supply chain vulnerability that two decades of refinery closures made inevitable.
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed 13 million barrels of daily oil supply from world markets, pushing Europe toward its worst energy crisis since the 1970s. The country Europe sanctioned into economic irrelevance now holds the key to the continent’s energy future.
BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies made at least $2.5 billion from trading in Q1 2026 as the Iran war created the largest oil supply disruption in history. Meanwhile, Exxon and Chevron lost $7 billion in derivative losses.